Economic outlook
Back in August last year, as financial institutions around the world took stock of a crisis that had plunged the sector into uncharted depths, a leading Gibraltar banker issued a stark warning.
In an interview with local reporters, Franco Cassar, head of Barclays in Gibraltar, urged consumers to tighten the reins on their spending.
With banks cutting back their lending criteria and the cost of borrowing edging up, this was a time for conservative attitudes.
“In the current climate, without wanting to panic or scare anybody, I think people need to be a bit more careful about how they spend their money,” he said at the time.
Mr Cassar struck the note of caution not just in respect of personal spending, but also as regards the public purse.
The Barclays chief acknowledged that major publicly-funded infrastructure projects and investments had a role to play in stimulating economic activity in times of hardship.
The new airport project, he said by way of example, was an important investment for the Rock because good communications were vital for other areas of the economy.
But he added that the need to be wary on spending applied to the government as well as the man on the street.
“I think the government is right in spending on some public sector projects, but I’m sure there are some that are less important than others,” he said.
“I think there generally needs to be an awareness that we need to be a bit more cautious about how we spend money.”
It is still too soon to assess the impact of the global credit crunch on business in Gibraltar, but the sense among business and political leaders so far is that the Rock is well-placed to withstand the crisis, and perhaps even benefit from it.
Chief Minister Peter Caruana, in his New Year message to Gibraltar, appeared bullish about Gibraltar’s prospects, an assessment helped by the decisive victory in the court case against the European Commission over the Rock’s corporate taxation policy, a factor that underpins the local economy.
“We are very well placed to ride out the storm, and indeed emerge even stronger at the other end of it,” he said.
“Our economy and public finances are strong and robust, the largest parts of our economic activities are stable and on a secure footing.”
“The Government will therefore continue with its scheduled programme of public infrastructure investment, which will provide a welcome stimulus to the economy at a time when the private sector is going through challenging times.”
In recent months, the Gibraltar Government has awarded foreign – mostly Spanish – companies a number of major public-infrastructure contracts worth around E200m.
That has prompted some concern that the knock-on benefits to local businesses of public spending on major infrastructure schemes may not be as significant as in other economies.
Critics point out that foreign construction companies working in Gibraltar often tend to employ outside workers, for example.
Likewise the larger construction companies often impose restrictive credit terms when securing supplies, making it difficult for smaller local companies to compete.
How this will unfold over the coming months remains to be seen, but the Government is adamant that the strategy is one that will pay off for Gibraltar as a whole.
In colourful language, the Chief Minister summed up his assessment of the situation: “These are all projects which take Gibraltar’s socio economic development to new levels and thus ensure our standard of living and quality of life for generations to come.”
“Successful government,” he said, “is about vision for the future, and not about freezing like a scared rabbit in the headlights of today’s temporary news.”
According to Mr Caruana, Gibraltar’s economy will be able to absorb any disruption that may occur to jobs and employment prospects, in particular with companies that may be affected by the global economic downturn.
But he said the Government would in any event remain vigilant and ready to intervene “as necessary and appropriate” to minimise the effect of global recession on job security and availability.
Some steps have already been taken, for example the introduction of measures to guarantee a minimum rate of interest on savings by pensioners and others, however far interest rates may fall in the coming months.
On the other side of the political fence, the GSLP/Liberal Opposition is also confident that Gibraltar will ride out the impact of the global economic downturn.
It is not so positive, however, about some of the Government’s planned projects, in particular the airport terminal.
“In opposition the GSD criticised borrowing for public investment, [claiming that] everything we built was going to be a white elephant and the debt a millstone for future generations,” said Opposition leader Joe Bossano.
“Now, borrowing £80 million to build an air terminal is not a white elephant or a millstone [and] instead, they tell you, it ensures the standard of living of future generations.”
He added: “They have borrowed much more than we did and we have not questioned the amount of borrowing, though we seriously question the way the money is being used.”

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